Understanding Political Polls
http://thedianerehmshow.org/shows/2012-10-22/understanding-political-polls
Voters look to political polls to understand who is winning the presidential race. But interpreting these numbers can be difficult. Diane and guests explore the art and science of political polls.
Guests
Andrew Kohut
director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
Whit Ayres
president and founder of North Star Opinion Research
Mark Blumenthal
senior polling editor of the Huffington Post
Comments
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US VOTERS DESERVE BROADER- & LESS POLITICIZED- DISCOURSE RE LIBYA ISSUES!!
What is being argued and alleged by the US's Presidential and congressional candidates regarding what was or was not said and what was or what was not known about the recent attacks on the US's Libya ambassadorial staff and consulate is a contemptible waste of the public's time!!
A far more productive and useful discourse could be had by those concerned commenting on the level of and quality of support- or lack of it- being provided by western nations to the now 'liberated' Libya and its fledgling governance, legal and civil society structures...
The likelihood of terrorist attacks occurring within Libya can only be greatly reduced if the broad democratic/political and human rights objectives of Libya's laudable freedom fighters can be achieved...
Considering the close proximity of Libya to what were the major international military players in the overthrow of former dictator Khadaffi- the United Kingdom, France and Italy- certainly there ought to be substantial criticisms of these countries- and perhaps also of the body under which they intervened militarily in Libya- NATO- as to why there has been a virtual disappearance of western countries' support for the liberated Libya since dictator Khadaffi's downfall....
... which has invited the emergence of violent radical Islamists and dangerous, destabilizing Muslim sectarianism within Libya... which has in turn lead to deplorable events such as that at the US consular facilities in Benghazi on September 11-2012...
Roderick V. Louis,
Vancouver, BC, Canada
PART 2:
Responsible US political parties and their candidates should be loudly questioning the paucity of support by the lead participating countries in Libya's 'democracy-and-human-rights-motivated revolution' last year... and making concise commitments as to what exactly they will do if re-elected/elected in order to assist the now liberated Libya in its attempts to set up functional, human-rights-based, secular democratic governance and legal apparatus'...
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1) Why haven't leading polling firms questioned (US) voters as to what their preferences were regarding commitments that their Presidential and Congressional candidates should make re future direct or indirect US rolls, if any, in Libya/assisting Libya becoming a more secular, democratic, human-rights-upholding country??
2) Why couldn't several leading polling firms question (US) voters as to what their preferences were regarding commitments that their Presidential and Congressional candidates should make re future re future direct or indirect US rolls, if any, in Libya/assisting Libya becoming a more secular, democratic, human-rights-upholding country??
______________
Roderick V. Louis,
Vancouver, BC, Canada
What is most needed in the US's presidential (and congressional) elections is answers to:
1) "which presidential and congressional candidates are most likely to* equitably- and responsibly- spread cuts to US govt spending if their economic plans don't work- and/or the govt deficit keeps growing/doesn't shrink fast enough??"
2) "If you are re-elected/elected, and if the economic policies that you are campaigning on are passed by the House of Representatives and Senate (& signed into law) and subsequently these economic policies end up not working and/or the govt deficit keeps growing/doesn't shrink fast enough- what policies will you advocate to raise govt revenues, IE: what, if any, types of taxes will you endorse being raised??"
3) "If you are re-elected/elected, and if the economic policies that you are campaigning on are passed by the House of Representatives and Senate (& signed into law) and subsequently these economic policies end up not working and/or the govt deficit keeps growing/doesn't shrink fast enough- what policies will you advocate to lower govt expenditures, IE: what, if any, cuts to govt services and programmes will you endorse??
Why couldn't polling firms canvas voters re how they'd like their candidates to answer the above questions?
Roderick V. Louis,
Vancouver, BC, Canada,
(non-US-citizen)
* 'work towards' equitably- and responsibly- spreading cuts...
... recognizing the inherent oppositional relationship that exists between the US government's 3 branches, IE: House of Representatives, Senate & President (+ his/her cabinet) and that US Presidents don't rule by decree...
Wow! Nothing like waiting until a program actually airs before posting a Comment, especially when posting Comments that are completely irrelevant!
That's surely not the behavior of the Canadians I met and knew back when I went to college at Dalhousie. Of course, that was in Nova Scotia, on the East Coast, maybe you Vancouverites are an entirely different breed.
You're sure acting like an American.
Dear Diane and Guests,
Please discuss the impact of reporting poll results over and over often long before elections. Do the polls adversely affect any races? Is there any way to lessen the possibility that polls actually discourage voting?
Etaoin Shrdlu wrote:
"Wow! Nothing like waiting until a program actually airs before posting a Comment"
Uh ... isn't that what you're doing? If the show hasn't aired yet, and you are so opposed to posting before the show airs, why are you even here? And before you go there ... I'm not the one complaining!
Topic: Diebold Machines the Current Twilight Zone- Current Election Days
The Twilight Zone re-emerges on Election Day. That is the only day of the year, and the United States is the only place on earth, where mathematical theory of sampling and scientific rigor of data gathering don't function. On other days and in other countries exit polls accurately call election results - Yes, the United States of America entered The Twilight Zone on Election Day. Even with President Obama's election, the final result was inconsistent with the average across the major pre-election polls (Zogbe, Gallup, CNN).
In contrast, Congress just passed legislation that sampling be used to monitor listeria and two other pathogens in our food supply. Sampling works for monitoring pathogens but not for monitoring accurate voting, and only in the U.S., and only on Election Day? Really?
For example, in Freeman & Bleifuss, (2006), with the Forward by Congressman Conyers, the authors write:
Based on the exit polls, Kerry won three states that he would lose in the official count: Ohio (by 8.8 percentage points), Nevada (7.5 points), New Mexico (7.0) had a lead within the polling margin of error in three more: Florida (2.6 points), Iowa (2.3 points and Colorado (1.4 points); and was trailing within the margin of error in three others: Virginia (0.3 points), North Carolina (1.4 points and Missouri (1.4 points). The net result is an electoral victory for Kerry of 282-174, with 82 electoral votes too close to call. (p.135 from Was the 2004 presidential election stolen? Exit polls, election fraud, and the official count).
Without the exit polls in all states to monitor the elections, the likelihood of wrongdoing has just skyrocketed.
...
Polling numbers certainly become tiresome and repetitive but what other means do campaigns have to measure their current standing?
equalizer wrote:
Polling numbers certainly become tiresome and repetitive but what other means do campaigns have to measure their current standing?
Why, the 7-11 coffee cup count, of course.
How do the polls take into account the voters whose votes will not be counted, either because of machine misbehavior or for other reasons such as provisional ballots that don't get counted?
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2012_10/no_such_thin...
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/blogphotos/Blog_MOE_2008.gif
Can't anybody in the mainstream press explain what "margin of error" means?
Because if a poll shows a 4% lead for Candidate A over B and a 4% MofE, that DOESN'T mean "they're statistically tied". It means that Candidate A has about a 84% chance of actually leading at that point. Three point lead and three point MofE? Still 84% likeliness.
If some schlub like me can know this, why doesn't anyone who's paid money to be "savvy" know this?
Oh, and while we're on the subject, please, more on how crap polls (hello, Rasmussen!) sucker managing editors to make headlines on their fallacies. I'm not all that jazzed on seeing a 72-point headline about one thing, and feeling confident that "curious news consumers can read the actual wording and decide for themselves". That's a cop-out for editors.
It’s important that Americans understand polls. After all, “poll analysis” has, to a large extent, replaced actual journalism.
It seems to me the the polls are good for those talking on TV and needing something to talk about. The others that seem to benefit are the pollsters and those buying the data. I don't see that the general public (voters) gain much by hearing and seeing all the poll talk. With all the polling that we have going on these days and the time spent by media talking about them, we don't seem to be getting better politicians or addressing our problems any better.
Can someone tell me why polls are even necessary? I understand the reason candidates need their internal polling, but what purpose does it serve the public? Reporting poll results is just lazy and cheap journalism. If all the time and money spent on polls were given over to analysis of the issues, we would have the most informed electorate in the world. But alas that is not the goal of our current dumbed down media.
Statman2 - Kerry's campaign fell apart when the truth about his Swift boat medals in Vietnam was exposed. The voters stood by the real fighter, President Bush.
It would have been great to have a female pollster on the panel. There are many great ones in DC and around the country.
@edwards
Bush II, the real fighter? Hahahahaha.
I'll remember to call you as a character reference if I ever want to go AWOL from military service.
I'm afraid you're missing the point. Polls are useful to the campaigns.
They are COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT to voters.
normajean wrote:
"Can someone tell me why polls are even necessary? I understand the reason candidates need their internal polling, but what purpose does it serve the public? Reporting poll results is just lazy and cheap journalism. If all the time and money spent on polls were given over to analysis of the issues, we would have the most informed electorate in the world. But alas that is not the goal of our current dumbed down media."
Agreed! Thank you...
Why is it that exit polling, which used to be very accurate until 2000, suddenly no longer predicted the vote that the machines counted?
For months every poll was saying the stock market is way up, Obama's lead is insurmountable, Romney is a weak candidate, etc and hoping the voters would but it. Now they are finally changing their tune. Pouring money into banks for investing (QE1, QE2, Qe3), from the Federal Reserve, is one way to bolster the markets.
Conservatives do not thank the current administration for yet one more fakery...ultimately probably even worse than their fakery regarding the unemployment numbers.
How do pollsters reconcile the fact that some people deliberately given false information in order to skew poll results?
Q: I (and others) purposefully give polls wrong information. Do pollsters account for this practice?
why?
Will there be exit polling in Ohio on Nov. 6th? There are reports that Tag Romney and HIG private equity firm has vested interest in Hart Intercivic voting machines. The ones being used in Ohio. if this is close and Ohio is up for grabs would exit polling quell suspicions or heighten the feeling of stealing an election?
Does the known tendency to not wish to appear racist in answering poll questions cause polls to overstate the support for President Obama?
I find the subject of today's show rather humorous.
The purpose of today's show is to bolster the morale of liberals, what with Romney rising in the polls.
If Obama was in a secure lead, this show would not be airing.
I can see the reason for the desperation, Romney/Ryan will cut PBS/NPR off from public funds.
I don't really fault DR for this transparent attempt to buttress the democrat's interest, rather it is an example of why 500 million of the public's money per year should not be spent on democrat propaganda.
When they are generating their own money, we'll see how interested they are in shilling for the blue team.
Merem said:if this is close and Ohio is up for grabs would exit polling quell suspicions or heighten the feeling of stealing an election?
That's the question I keep asking, both in email to drs and here -- why are exit polls no longer "accurate" now that we have these voting machines we can't
audit? Which do you have more faith in, the machine counts or the exit polls?
Here's my problem w/polls, except Zogby: the assumption of binary answers. Y or N, (R) or (D), etc. As a socialist/Green Party supporter, the questions often force me to reply N/A. Even if the issue is, say, on foreign policy, it's often posed as A or B. So, I hang up.
Kevin Garry
D.C.