James Fallows: "China Airborne"
http://thedianerehmshow.org/shows/2012-05-10/james-fallows-china-airborne
Last year China announced plans to invest a quarter of a trillion dollars in its aviation industry over the next five years. What coast-to-coast railroads meant for 19th century America, airports mean for China today. More than two-thirds of the new airports under construction today are being built in China - just one of the many signs of the scope of China’s ambitions and potential as it hopes to become a new leader in aviation. China’s aviation industry is analogous for its modernization goals. James Fallows joins Diane to discuss the extraordinary scale of China's plans and what they could mean, not only for the United States, but the rest of the world.
Guests
James Fallows
national correspondent, "The Atlantic."
Program Highlights
Last year, China announced plans to spend $250 billion to jumpstart its aviation industry. Author James Fallows explored the country’s potential for a modern aerospace industry in his new book, “China Airborne: The Dream of Aviation in Emerging China.” Fallows looked at whether China would continue to be a fast-moving but low-wage economy, or whether it would develop into a sophisticated economy similar to the United States, Germany and Japan.
China’s Growing Transportation Industry
China has an enormous transportation infrastructure program, from roads to high-speed rails. Most of the airports in existence or in construction are in China. Fallows said China is building more than 100 new airports right now, whereas the United States is building one or two airports. But Fallows said China’s program is “extremely ambitious and has had some real trouble in the last year,” talking about the very highly publicized high-speech rail crashes that killed lots of people.
Military Influence
The Chinese military controls nearly all the country's air space. Fallows said this is an enormous factor and problem in determining China’s modernization. He said that military reservations or security zones are blocked airspace, which leads to indirect routing and huge delays at the big airports in Shanghai or Beijing.
Training New Pilots
In China, people are screened for good eyesight and then sent to pilot school. However, Fallows said eyesight is not necessary to be a good pilot. “You can wear glasses and it doesn't indicate whether you have other aptitude for this, but so they're ramping it up.” Fallows said even though China has a high volume of universities, it lacks the marking of a great university establishment. He said Boeing, the Federal Aviation Administration and United Airlines have been training China’s engineers and teaching them how to conduct pilot inspections. Many ethnic Chinese scientists who have won Nobel Prizes do their research at Berkeley or Oxford, rather than at a Chinese institution. Fallows said this is “very, very wounding” to Chinese officials.
What Will China Be Like In 20 Years?
Fallows said no one could confidently predict what China will be like in the future. He said it could become a bigger version of what it is now, or it could become much more liberal compared to how it is now. “If so, then it will be more competitive for the United States, but in a way it'll be easier to deal with because it'll be a more open society. So the fact that we don't know is what makes it fascinating.”
You can read the full transcript here.
Comments
Please familiarize yourself with our Code of Conduct and Terms of Use before posting your comments.
We are getting are butts kicked because our federal government spending is totally out of control. I see no will in government or on the part of the people as a whole to cut anything. Borrowing from the future to live well today can only end in disaster. What we don't need is increased taxation to make the federal government even bigger, every day we hear about the need to spend more to cover new programs or to increase spending on existing programs to cover more problems, it's never the reverse, government only grows. We need across the board spending cuts including defence. Collectively we have lethargic brains to go along with our obese bodies.
"Defense Secretary Leon Panetta took to the Hill Tuesday to lobby budget hawks to get the nation’s debt under control by cutting spending and entitlements, not defense."
“You can’t meet the challenge that you’re facing in this country by continuing to go back at discretionary spending,” Panetta told lawmakers at a Senate Budget Committee hearing.
“That’s less than a third of federal spending. If you’re not dealing with the two thirds that is entitlements spending, if you’re not dealing with revenue and you keep going back to the same place, frankly you’re not going to make it, and you’re going to hurt this country’s security,” Panetta said.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/defense-secretary-our-debt-path-threaten...
China can build and manufacture much faster and cheaper than the USA as they have almost no environmental rules at all. Look at that smokestack in the airport photo, which is typical of cities all over China. Air in Beijing is 15 times more polluted than NYC.
How Does the National
Debt Affect Me?
So, how does this affect the owner/manager of the emerging business? In many ways!
First, approximately 20 cents out of every dollar of total tax revenue collected is immediately used merely to pay the burgeoning interest on the Federal debt. This is now surpassing the costs for our entire defense establishment, and it is exceeded only by the revenues needed to fund the total Medicare and Medicaid programs. (Ostensibly, Social Security is funded independently; about $4.0 trillion of the total debt are funds borrowed from the Social Security and Medicare surpluses.) We are held hostage by this horrendous debt; 20 cents is the ransom to be paid out of every dollar we must deliver in taxes.
Thus, absolutely no governmental services or benefits are delivered in return for 20 percent of our total Federal tax bill. These are substantial funds that could most prudently be re-invested in the growth of our own business, but must be shoveled out instead simply to service the interest on the Federal debt. These substantial funds are diverted by Government fiat from potentially constructive economic investments in one's own enterprise into barren interest payments to the world of strangers who hold these obligations of the Treasury of the United States.
And secondly, the spending power of our present and potential customers would be increased dramatically if this sterile 20 percent of our total tax bill that is immediately swallowed by interest payments could only be freed for the purchase of goods and services. [Approximately half of all individual income taxes are required to pay the interest on the Federal debt.] While some of the recipients of these interest payments may recycle these funds into the purchase of domestic goods and services from emerging businesses, much of the Federal debt is held by foreigners. A substantial portion of the income of the average family of four is being devoured to pay the interest on this "family debt" equivalent to $160,000. Thus, the Federal debt is a heavy drag on the economy, impeding job creation and entrepreneurial expansion as well as consumer spending on goods and services.
I hear austerity is working wonders in Europe right now...
The majority of the Western world doesn't buy Russian-built aircraft. Certainly not in the United States and certainly not in countries like the United Kingdom or France. How large do you see the export market being for the C919 and other Chinese-built aircraft? Do you think they will penetrate the Western markets? What do you think the largest export market will be?
Great program,
I think it needs to be emphasized that China's aviation growth is being supplemented by American Pilots. Our airline industry is decimating the pilot career and some of these pilots are going to the Far East to make money.
Is there a human rights aspect to the expansion of Chinese airports? Similar to the eradication of Tibetans and their culture due to the building of railroads, is there a similar human rights effect on disenfranchised cultures in China from the building of airports?
Part of the issue is again corporate. Why are companies like GE (jet engines) and Cessna (small aircraft) opening mfg plants in China that leads to loss/transfer of U.S. jobs, engineering innovation, cultural IQ, etc.? Their product offerings can be built here, boxed up and exported.
What post did the high ranking GE executive occupy in the administration that helped facilitate business deals?
Corporations, business leaders of the multinational companies, and government 'leaders' need to look at the big picture and long term effects of their actions and decisions.
I can't understand why DRShow moderators allow unchecked reposting of canned right wing propaganda about subject matter that is off-topic, and often contains disproven ideological suppositions and false information. I cannot help but think there is a hidden agenda among the DRShow staff and administration.
Again and again MSM darlings are accompanied by corporate ravers on panels so that dissemination of needed information is handicapped by unnecessary bickering and preposterous claims. This anti-public interest material may generate lively conflict but obliterates the claimed educational mission. And when conservative nuts are treated as credible this can't help but attract the robo-poster with his limited menu of canned material. Left wing panelists seem scrupulously excluded. This makes people like me with a strong social conscience seem out on a limb, and works us to death refuting extremists while still trying to critique the MSM pundits. I think I can use my time elsewhere to better purpose.
China uses more obvious heavy-handed methods but they're no more effective than the "Propaganda Model" (wiki entry) as developed by Chomsky and Herman.
More and more DRShow seems drawn into operation of all the filters, intimidations, prohibitions and inducements they describe. Other longtime listeners I know have noticed a corporate turn away from human rights over this last decade. It is far more evident in political content than in cultural content, but it is there. DRShow is not the only public media outlet that is alienating previously loyal devotees with this corporate slide. But at least we can shop around (so far) on the worldwide web and satellite TV and inform ourselves. How much easier it would be if DRShow and others had not faded away. But it is funny that the USA with a justice system that so favors the wealthy and the corporate claims they want to help a blind Chinese lawyer. Maybe he'll pass the bar and help Exxon-Mobil gain its sovereignty, when the truth is that it should be nationalized. (My complaint refers mostly to the obesity topic, but applies here as well. James Fallows is peripheral to what I'm saying.)
James Fallows is one of those MSM guys like Tom Gjelten who seems to receive his weekly assignment from the CIA desk. He's not extreme but his greatest talent is to generate fear and anxiety about economic and national security matters. Who cares who makes the planes. Most people in the world will never ride one. Most workers who make them are experiencing a fall in salary and benefits. Planes are a tool of the average person's subjugation. The USA could do very well making the basic things we need and some creature comforts. Global competition is a game where Oligarchs make various "anthills" fight one another for survival. Globalism: You can't lose if you don't play.
Fallows is a talented and intelligent person and it is a shame he must toe the corporate line to secure a living. He has taught Americans valuable generic information about the Far East. I lost a couple thousand on his advice after 9/11 in penny stocks where he advised that the elite would soon be using air taxis to avoid security hassles. I'd have made a few bucks if Jim had guessed correctly. Maybe with drone warfare and drone social control the airline industry will become obsolete and guys like Jim will be using air taxis. (Here we go again!)
.
Think of China-today as a business partner.
When you hear that China-today is spending (investing) US dollars to do anything progressive be proud and wave your China-American flag higher.
It should be good to hear that the dollars you spent have been capitalized and are now dollars being spent for good competition toward human progress.
.
point 1
We are getting are butts kicked because our federal government spending is totally out of control.
Reply 1
Government spending is controlled. You may dislike the project, the project management, the products produced or the services provided. You may even dislike the warranty. The control of government (or public-corporate) spending is very controlled.
Instead of being vague (or general) be specific, i.e, do your homework. Pick a government product or service and learn how it is managed. Then write an e-mail to each member of congress and your new's editor, and in those letters, ask that a specific project be altered or abolished according to what you have learned to be correct.
Point 2
I see no will in government or on the part of the people as a whole to cut anything.
Reply 2
All my life, the baby-boom has altered America; like the bulge of food passing down the length of a snake.
The baby boom is getting near the rear-end of the snake and before the baby-boom turns to ''do-do'', I suspect they will have more good changes to make to America's self-government.
Soon, the baby-boom -- whose members have been too busy working for food, clothing, shelter, and knowledge -- will have free time to govern themselves.
A few more years of patience, please.
What do you wish to bet, that when the baby-boom is retired and has need of certain government products and services, then the spending on other government projects will stop and spending on those baby-boom projects will begin?
I will take that ten-thousand dollar bet, too.
.
Point 3
Borrowing from the future to live well today can only end in disaster.
Reply 3
Capitalism is about borrowing. Borrowing is about lending. I think we can continue to borrow and lend.
Will we continue to borrow and lend for war projects or switch to infrastructure projects ?
I will vote for my government to provide for my retired baby-boom parent's needs: food clothing, shelter, & knowledge to govern themselves. And I'm sure my retired baby-boom parents will vote likewise. From this knowledge, I know that the future will be in good hands.
Point 4
What we don't need is increased taxation to make the federal government even bigger.
Reply 4
We need well-managed government projects. And that means we need enough money; not too little and not too much.
The baby-boom is big and has always needed a big everything. Chances are that the price of baby-boom retired-government will be bigger than before them and smaller after them.
.
U left out of canned poster acronym, between T and R.
libertarians r us
You wrote, "We are getting are butts kicked because our federal government spending is totally out of control."
But - the discussion and example at hand is China who is "investing" a quarter of a trillion dollars (250B USD) of government funds into the aviation, aerospace & defense industries to create higher socio-economic employment.
So you seem to be promoting austerity by saying the "competition" is doing the opposite? Your argument doesn't hold water (or anything else).
To say European austerity has not worked is ridiculous, it was not given a chance to work! how could anyone think decades of government malfeasance can be cleaned up and righted with a couple of years of belt tightening, it can't. Europeans cannot avoid austerity no matter what they do, either can we.
China is not broke they can "invest", were broke we can't invest on these scales until our house is in order
Hi Pancake, federal debt is a huge problem, left alone it will take down "trusts" too. Stateism or free market capitalism is the choice, choose! I would rather be free and poor than oppressed and poor with no opportunity, how about you?
Having returned last week from a 3 week tour of China, I would like to take issue with your guest's assessment of China's current state of technological development: 1. I flew 4 different internal Chinese airlines. All schedules were followed to the minute; staff was highly professional, even meals were good. Airports in Shanghai, Beijing and Xian were gleaming modern, incredibly clean, with highly advanced architecture. So, commercial flying in China was a highly proficient experience. A similar experience came in riding on their bullet train and speeds and comfort far exceeding that in the USA and even in Japan. Schedules were adhered to within 30 sec of departure/arrival times. Main roads leading in and out of major cities and within these cities were incredibly clean and totally devoid of pot-holes, albeit very crowded. Major hotels and department stores were ultra-modern with professional staff to boot. The Chinese we encountered were outgoing, friendly, honest (not a single attemp at pick-pocketin even in very crowded situation. My bottom line about China is for the USA to beware of the Dragon. They are going to surpass us very soon unless we, in this country, start doing things instead of log jamming in Congress.