Stimulating the Slowing Economic Recovery

President Barack Obama gestures during a meeting with his economic team, including from left, Counsel of Economic Advisors Chair Christy Romer, National Economic Council Director Larry Summers, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, in the Oval Office, March 5, 2010 - Official White House photo by Pete Souza via Flickr

President Barack Obama gestures during a meeting with his economic team, including from left, Counsel of Economic Advisors Chair Christy Romer, National Economic Council Director Larry Summers, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, in the Oval Office, March 5, 2010

Official White House photo by Pete Souza via Flickr

Stimulating the Slowing Economic Recovery

Efforts to prevent a double dip recession. What options remain for the Federal Reserve to support the sagging economic recovery, spur businesses to hire more workers, and stabilize the housing market

Efforts to prevent a double dip recession. What options remain for the Federal Reserve to support the sagging economic recovery, spur businesses to hire more workers, and stabilize the housing market

Guests

Michael Greenberger

professor, University of Maryland Law School; director, Center for Health and Homeland Security; and former senior regulator, Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

Alan S. Blinder

a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University and vice chairman of the Promontory Interfinancial Network, is a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

Alice Rivlin

senior fellow, Brookings Institution,
vice chair, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System (1996-99);
director, White House Office of Management and Budget (1994-96); and founding director, Congressional Budget Office (1975-83).

Douglas Holtz-Eakin

president of the American Action Forum, chief economist and director of the Congressional Budget Office from 2003 to 2006.

Comments

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I'm with Paul Krugman and others who believe the stimulus was half what it should have been from the get-go. I doubt we can do much about that now unless -- and here's the catch -- unless the president shows the clarity and leadership the country needs so badly. He looks as though he's acting under the order, "Duck and cover!"

August 30, 2010 - 9:18 am

I have absolutely no economic background but I can't help feeling that part of the reason the economy is so sluggish is that it was based on several things that have to be discarded (such as out-of-control consumerism, a super-inflated hoursing and real estate market, an overly important financial sector, etc.) and a new basis created. Reorienting the ecomomy on a more sound basis takes time, thought and patience. Yet people will not be satisfied until it returns to that same over-inflated state. I am I on the wrong track? I never hear anyone discuss it in this way.

August 30, 2010 - 9:22 am

Hi. Let's get Elizabeth Warren's take on all this. She is the only one I've heard with clear, intelligent insight.
Geitner? Fox in the henhouse ...

Again ... let's hear from Elizabeth Warren!!!

August 30, 2010 - 9:27 am

I wold like to ask the economist something: when you look back in history and analyze an economic event such as the Great Depression, what is the time frame you have to consider in order to evaluate the impact the measures taken had. I am very disoriented because I think that everybody is giving their opinion regarding the Obama administration's measures, without giving them their chance to have an impact. I don't see that 18 months is an enough long time frame. Let's not forget this is a process. It took us eight years to spend the surplus and reach unprecedented deficits. Don't we need more than 18 months to reverse the process? How do you expect steady economic growth in this context? Is it realistic to expect that?

August 30, 2010 - 9:28 am

I work directly with the recorder of deeds in Sl Louis county Missouri and have seen recording activity almost double in the last month I assume the increase is refinancing because of low interest rates
Isn't refinancing happening everywhere in the country
and shouldn't this be a real boost to the economy

August 30, 2010 - 9:28 am

Nothing fundamental has been changed in the economy. A healthy economy cannot depend upon construction and service sector jobs to function properly. We have a dysfunctional economy gutted by the loss of our manufacturing sector. Until we rebuild this sector and protect our own economy – contrary to the last 3 decades of destructive and failed “Free Market” mantra – we will languish. We need to sell things to our selves (which we currently do not do – check the tags on just about everything we buy) by concentrating on the reduction of the Import side of our trade deficit, not the Export side of the equation. True recovery will take many years.

The underlying beneficiaries to the gutting of our economy have been transnational corporations that benefit regardless of what happens here since they just move their capital, and jobs, overseas. Until we deal with the monopolistic and unchecked power of corporations nothing will happen. Large corporations already pay next to nothing in taxes in this country, requiring the middle class to pick up the slack. The Founding Fathers are likely rolling in their graves on how we have relinquished our political power to corporations.

August 30, 2010 - 9:39 am

I disagree about the funding toward medicine not being effective. The funding put forward in the HITECH legislation has been instrumental and the creation and re-investment in companies that create and support EMR systems. This is improving the economy and improving patient care. It also has attracted great talent to HIT which we desperately need.
-Regina Holliday, Patient Advocate

August 30, 2010 - 9:34 am

Can anyone comment on the perception by businesses that they simply can't move in any direction right now because congress and the administration will change the rules in a matter of weeks....
It's hard to run and grow a business when you have no idea what your variable or fixed costs are going to be in 6 months.

Simply being predictable will bring the market back!

Cheers!

August 30, 2010 - 9:36 am

I think buying a house and being a homeowner is totally overrated. I am concerned about universal healthcare; income tax restructure (do NOT renew tax structure for the over-wealthy); available, affordable education; obsession with being 'the best' ... a 'super power;' supporting local economies; quit building parking lots, importing food and so on.
I would posit the most important fuel is food, not oil, and the most important resource is the people!
I want something back for my tax dollar and NOT war! A journey to Ireland showed me that universal healthcare is wonderful -- that's what I want for my tax dollar.
I despair for our sweet nation. With the current business model the modus operandi is 'I got mine, what's wrong with you!'
And people are 'circling their wagons' -- divided by economic class, and only hanging-out with others who hold their same view.
We need to do something about corporations -- the should not have the same rights as people, and consumers should not have more rights than citizens. If one could get a job in Germany, there are many, many wonderful universities one could attend ... Sweden has discovered that supporting the people on the so-called lowest rung actually saves money and resources for the entire population.
This, I suppose, is rant # 999! Thank you for all you do, Diane. good job!
cya

August 30, 2010 - 9:48 am

How much sustainable growth is produced by short-term economic stimulus?

What incentives are created by 99 weeks of unemployment benefits?

Refinancing mortgages will not improve the economy if homeowners use the proceeds to boost savings because the future is so uncertain.

Undoing globalization is impossible. Tying the hands of our multi-national companies will only benefit their competitors.

August 30, 2010 - 9:53 am

I agree that this problem is far more serious than we want to admit. In addition to the problems outlined on today's show, no one ever talks about the MULTI NATIONAL COMPANIES and how they have their cake and eat it too....all at the expense of the American Middle Class. Of course, we are all at fault to some point....we want to buy CHEAP stuff.....so American firms ship jobs overseas, then ship it right back to us. They make their profits, and plow them into our government to maintain their distorted, major shareholder status quo. At some point, just like the housing situation, something has to give.

Heck, China is now complaning about labor competition from other Far Eastern countries desperate to raise their living standards. Until we are willing to stand up to our own Multi Nationals, China and others, and be prepared to be more protectionist...just as they are with their state supported CAPITALISM, our middle class is DONE.

August 30, 2010 - 9:51 am

We do not need corporate tax cuts. Corporations are sitting on records amount of cash so giving them more cash will not get them to hire more. Trying to make corporations hire with tax breaks is a push strategy and that does not work. We need to use a pull strategy by stimulating buying (sales) and that will force corporations to hire more employees to keep up with sales.

August 30, 2010 - 9:52 am

it is real simple to me...
until people get hired back, they will not have the money to buy the products... therfore our number one priority is to hire people back.
Thank you.

August 30, 2010 - 9:53 am

re: corporate tax cuts
My husband is an operating partner with a national restaurant chain. Cutting payroll taxes would be of enormous help to him. Could your panelists speak to this?

August 30, 2010 - 9:55 am

In the spirit of clearly saying what we need, independent of the readiness of our political system to accept it, would your panelists comment on the following question: Would taxing environmental diseconomies (e.g., oil consumption, coal burning, water overuse, pollution, etc.) be a way of closing the federal deficit, reducing payroll and income taxes, providing aid to states and municipalities, and improving long run sustainability? Thank you for yet another great discussion.

August 30, 2010 - 9:56 am

Key word for credibility in economy:
Credit Lines for businesses.

August 30, 2010 - 9:56 am

In regards to tax rates, look at historical marginal tax rates and corporate tax rates. Back in the late 40s and 50s, the marginal tax rate was right around 90% for incomes over $400,000 and US corporations paid an effective tax rate of 49%. During that time, we had plenty of capitalistic growth and we were able to keep national debt in check. Now the marginal tax rate and the effective corporate tax rate is less than half of what it was back in the late 40s and 50s.

August 30, 2010 - 9:57 am

Please stop comparing the corporate taxes in this country with those in other countries. If you're going to do so, be sure you also talk about the personal taxes. So, if you want to lower our taxes to the rates of other countries, then we should also raise the personal taxes to the levels of those same countries.

August 30, 2010 - 9:57 am

The actual, underlying problem here is that our banks are insolvent. Thanks to accounting control fraud, executives have made off with billions in salary and bonuses. In order to confront this, the FDIC must take these banks into receivership, as it did during the S&L crisis of the 90s. Unfortunately, the amounts needed today dwarf the amounts needed in the 90s. The stimulus (spendulous?) money would be far more effective if allocated to the FDIC (and the FBI) for purposes of cleaning up the bank mess.

Read more about this here:

http://huffpostfund.org/stories/2010/05/too-big-jail

August 30, 2010 - 10:01 am

Darn it! I'm always late to the party with this show!

I would have loved to hear some comments on Bill Gross' proposal to refinance all non-delinquent mortgages backed by the federal government. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged a record-low 4.44 percent in the week ending Aug. 12.

The original article was posted on August 18 here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/17/bill-gross-mortgage-refi-_n_685...

Maybe a topic for a future show?

August 30, 2010 - 10:02 am

I was driving while the show was on so I could not ask the question then. But I have a basic accounting question that should be asked of everyone the supports the extension of the tax cut for the wealthy.

Other than domestic staff, how does the money used to create a middle class job make it on to the 1040 form of a high income taxpayer?

The trickle down crowd would have us believe that lower taxes on high income earners creates middle class jobs. The money on those tax returns is money that did not create any jobs! The trend over the years is for those same earners to push for “productivity gains”, doing more work with less payroll. Much of this money comes from destroying jobs, not from creating them. The Government has worked to create stimulus packages, but where is the stimulus package from the wealthy of this country.

August 30, 2010 - 10:23 am

I am listening to the show now. These folks keep talking around the elephant in the room.

http://lakeweb.com/money/debt-trend-breakdown_thumb.jpg

New money, stimulus, amount to increasing the level of total debt. It does not fix anything as the elephant only gets bigger.

Why is this elephant ignored? Because to admit to it as the real source of our problem would be to admit to a fundamental flaw of our system. No one in the media seems to want to touch it.

Best, Dan.

August 30, 2010 - 11:28 am

I'm happy to wait until the show is over and mull the presentation awhile before I comment. This was a nibble at the edge of the cookie and until people explain this mess honestly nothing can be done. Greenberger was your most knowledgeable and honest guest. He agrees with tarascon that the stimulus was too small. George Roman cites Huffington Post to warn that the banks remain in deficit from profit-taking and falling values. George squares with Liz Warren who sees pending commercial foreclosures sinking many banks. Most posters here, and 3 of 4 guests illustrate Humo25's point about how most people can't see beyond their individual paycheck. One of your guests blamed income disparity on an educational and skill divide. This was a lie told with panache in a country where the oligarchy is so small and the assets in so few hands. People learn as much or more on the job as in school. Idle workers waste. The euphemism of "business community" to describe this oligarchy shows how short drshow has fallen from an honest discussion. The only business left in the financial realm is wholesale fraud and political hegemony.

August 30, 2010 - 11:34 am

I am afraid that the GDP and jobs numbers will continue to underperform as long as the government continues to "stimulate" the economy. The whole notion of stimulus is faulty at best. It's like taking running a blood transfusion from your leg to your arm. Furthermore, government borrowing is crowding out private lending. Small businesses cannot get loans as long as banks prefer to loan their money risk-free to the government (buying Treasury bonds) instead. The best thing we can do for this economy is to put it back on sound financial footing by stopping this squandering of our money on shortsighted initiatives and boondoggles.

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August 30, 2010 - 1:52 pm

I enjoyed your program, but was amazed that your pundits still just don't get it.
The primary factor that has stagnated job creation is the fear that worries present and potential private employers about the future costs keeping present and adding future employees. They know that health care costs will rise dramatically and the likely added costs of the "Bush" tax cuts ending make it impossible to safely plan for future profitability. Many employers are sitting on money that could add employees, but they fear it will be needed just to stay open when Obamacare and other employer mandates/regulations kick in.

I met a former student last week who had been well employed for 20 yrs with a company of 60 employees, but he (along with others) was just laid off in June, apparently to help reduce staff to under the 50 employee mandate that will require the employer to provide health insurance. When I asked what he was doing now, he replied, "Oh I'm back at the company as a temporary worker with no benefits, doing my same old job." Unfortunately, that is the trend that is being perpetuated by Obama's "change", and until it is reversed things will continue to get worse.

August 30, 2010 - 2:16 pm

One of Monday's participants indulged in a classic case of blaming the victim when he said a major problem was lack of good education, pointing at the school systems.

This is a canard that has been spread since at least 1990, even before the Republican Noise Machine was a recognized factor. No matter how hard people work to rebut these stories, there are institutes and consultants constantly feeding the idea to the media. And generally the media accept it without comment, as Diane did.

Our country is full of well educated and experienced people who can't get suitable jobs. Look at the unemployment among the last several years of new college graduates. Look at all the people over 50 with excellent credentials and experience who can't get hired.

The jobs are just going away. Some are filled by imported H1B visa workers, particularly in an area like information technology. In other cases the jobs are moved overseas. Once you have moved your manufacturing overseas, it makes a lot of sense to move your R&D overseas as well and companies like IBM and Microsoft have been quick to do that.

Here's a thought experiment. Take a high unemployment state like Michigan where the true unemployment rate is probably 25% or more (BLS makes it very hard to find current U6 numbers for states, but it was over 21% at the beginning of 2010). Now suppose you had a magic wand and by waving it you could instantly retrain/educate all those unemployed for anything at all. What would you retrain/educate them to do? Where are there jobs in the quantities needed for highly trained and educated people of all ages? Answer: they don't exist and won't exist. This is part of our national restructuring to a third world social system.

August 31, 2010 - 8:12 am

@Bob-Gort: I agree that numerous high-skilled jobs have vanished due to outsourcing, but I do think our educational system could be improved. As this story in the Times makes clear, there are cases in the US where folks simply don't have the brainpower to do the job.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/02/business/economy/02manufacturing.html

August 31, 2010 - 11:29 am

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